Link:

China's Future

Last article for the day:
The Economist typically is very dismissive of the Chinese perception that it was slighted and mistreated in the 19th century. If there is one lesson that is clear from that period, a strong GDP doesn't make for safety. It is estimated that China made up roughly 1/3rd of the World GDP at that time, and all that industry didn't matter in the face of colonialist forces intent on sacking Chinese wealth and markets.

Rightly or wrongly, it is no surprise that in the intelligentsia, very cognizant of the forces that brought China low in the past, are very loathe to repeat the mistakes that occurred in the past. It is always fascinating to see the irony.

In the decline of Rome, the de-emphasis of the military was a major factor in its fall to the Goths (as a group). Chinese dynastic decline was often accompanied by centuries of infighting and fragmented military control. From Babylonians to Incas, military strength is a huge indicator... that said, chickens or eggs? Economics/demography/culture/military? Causal relationships are difficult to truly know.

Hong Kong was taken by the British because the Chinese fought against the forced import of opium into the mainland. They fought, lost and were forced to cede Hong Kong. These sorts of actions teach that the west defines right by force of arms. Yes, Hong Kong was lost in a fight with drug dealer, effectively. Granted, as you read the annals of the British Empire, it's quite clear that the complexity, heterogeneity, and chaos of ruling the empire made cogent and consistent decision making impossible (cf. The Ghosts of Empire, Kwarteng, PublicAffairs Press). So to blame the British as a whole makes no sense, but certainly the policy of the leadership.

This perception of victimhood and need for security is important to understand. Is it an overreaction? Possibly. But would such a people believe the soothing words of those that had invaded before?

The memories of the conquerors is oft short.

The memories of the oppressed oft far less forgiving, vis a vis the variance of China's perception of policy and history with Vietnam, vs. the perceptions/memories of the Vietnamese [recall the slogan, `1000 years of Chinese Rule', frequently noted in Vietnam, but rarely mentioned in Chinese articulation;http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/vietnam/HISTORY.html]

These are lessons that relative new-comer, the US, ought to remember, as GDPs are not simply equal to power or stability.

 

Vows

I've thought often about what kind of vows I consider taking should I ever have the privilege of marrying someone.  

Without going to far into my own thoughts on what I would say, I offer these as a good set of vows.  They are clearly Christian, and they are deeply rooted in the text and context in which we understand Ephesians 5.  Before anyone takes offense about misogyny or chauvinism, I submit to you that having a husband who leads by sacrificing isn't 重男轻女。。。The challenge to any couple making vows like those below is realizing that they are both unattainable as broken humans, but that they can remain a sign post or a pole with which to organize one's marriage and responses to the stress and challenges that are implicit in the journey of marriage.

Mull.  I'll respond to these more personally in a later post by this weekend.

Yes, it's been a long time.

Thanks CY and TC, EN and MN!

Bride-

I vow to you before friends, family, and God these things, which apart from the grace of God, I cannot fulfill because of my present weaknesses and continued sinfulness.

As the church loves Christ sacrificially

so I vow to give up all things to love you apart from Christ

As the church loves Christ supremely above all else

so I vow to always delight only in you apart from Christ

As the church loves Christ eternally

so I vow to love you until my dying day

As the church cherishes Christ

so I vow to regard you as my greatest treasure next to Christ

As the church submits to Christ

so I vow to submit to you

As the church represents Christ

so I vow to represent you with all dignity and honor

As the church obeys Christ

so I vow to respectfully obey you

As the church serves Christ

so I vow to serve you with all humility and patience

And just as the church

Will forever remain the bride of Christ

So I vow to never depart from or abandon you,

For richer or for poorer

In sickness and in health

For better or for worse

Until death do us part

By my love, I hope to prepare you

For the Lord Jesus Christ, whose love

I can only hope to faintly imitate.

Groom

I vow to you before friends, family, and God these things, which apart from the grace of God, I cannot fulfill because of my present weaknesses and continued sinfulness.

As Christ loves His church sacrificially

so I vow to sacrifice all for your sake apart from Christ

As Christ loves His church supremely

so I vow to forever delight in only you apart from Christ

As Christ loves His church eternally

so I vow to love you until my dying day

As Christ provides for His church

so I vow to provide for you

As Christ sanctifies His church

so I vow to lead you in holiness

As Christ cherishes His church

so I vow to make you my greatest treasure next to Christ

As Christ leads His church

so I vow to lead you in accordance to the holy commandments

of our God and King

As Christ serves His church

so I vow to serve you with all humility and patience

And just as Christ has promised

Never to leave or forsake His church

So I vow to never depart from or abandon you,

For richer or for poorer

In sickness and in health

For better or for worse

Until death do us part

By my love, I hope to prepare you

For the One whose love

I can only but hope to faintly imitate.

Taxing the Rich

It's very interesting to me that the debate in congress and with the Oval Office centers on taxing the rich.  For disclosure, I will have my taxes increase under the proposed changes, so read this with a grain of salt.

The discussion on taxing the rich is actually quite a sad misdirection in that the concept that made so many upset with Romney was his effective tax rate in the teens.  The present changes do nothing to affect his tax rate, nor most of the 0.1% and up, because the majority of their wealth is from capital gains rather than in wages.  Small business owners are in this category as well - their business earnings will be taxed as personal income tax at the highest rate should they exceed 200K/250K depending on marital status.

Net effect?

Working professionals are taxed more, truly wealthy are largely unaffected.  This has 0 effect on a trust fund kid or an heiress, as they have no wages.  Many Congressmen and Senators become wealthy from investment as well, taxed at capital gains rates... and many finance firms earn their money from capital gains rates as well - although some of these Bush era changes are going to expire as well.  If the top tax bracket tax does go up, it just widens the gap between the truly wealthy and the rest of us.  

If the government really wanted to narrow the GINI, this isn't the way to do it - the towering piles of capital exist in the leadership of both liberals and conservatives - I find it humourous that these tax changes will not disproportionately affect them.

Growth at all Costs...

One of the things I think is very interesting about economic perspectives on current growth rates.  There seems to be an assumption that growth should occur indefinitely and at high rates.  A recent article in the economist talks about why Canada should increase consumption to boost economic growth. 

I'm not sure GDP growth should be looked at as some sort of arbitrary target.  Borrowing to drive growth cannot be a long term solution; repayment of the debts used to drive growth eventually curtail growth... you borrow now, but will pay later...  this isn't rocket science.  The pursuit of stable growth rates isn't a science - and macroeconomic, regional and global forces affect it.  To believe that one nation can control its growth rate indefinitely is poppy-cock.

The sooner our economies adjust to the reality of debt and overspending, the better.  Better pain now than later - because the uncertainty of colossal debt (yes, we could default - but that results in economic upheaval - vis a vis Argentina or even pre-Reich Germany.  Government/societal default does not normally presage good times.

F

Thunder and Lightning

Boldly streaking across the sky

Electric flashes

Thunder resounds

Stentorian

Rain lashes against the stone and brick

Relentless

Water, sweet water, drenches the earth

Slaking its parched thirst

Gifting itself

With abandon