May 2, 2013

  • Link:

    China's Future

    Last article for the day:
    The Economist typically is very dismissive of the Chinese perception that it was slighted and mistreated in the 19th century. If there is one lesson that is clear from that period, a strong GDP doesn't make for safety. It is estimated that China made up roughly 1/3rd of the World GDP at that time, and all that industry didn't matter in the face of colonialist forces intent on sacking Chinese wealth and markets.

    Rightly or wrongly, it is no surprise that in the intelligentsia, very cognizant of the forces that brought China low in the past, are very loathe to repeat the mistakes that occurred in the past. It is always fascinating to see the irony.

    In the decline of Rome, the de-emphasis of the military was a major factor in its fall to the Goths (as a group). Chinese dynastic decline was often accompanied by centuries of infighting and fragmented military control. From Babylonians to Incas, military strength is a huge indicator... that said, chickens or eggs? Economics/demography/culture/military? Causal relationships are difficult to truly know.

    Hong Kong was taken by the British because the Chinese fought against the forced import of opium into the mainland. They fought, lost and were forced to cede Hong Kong. These sorts of actions teach that the west defines right by force of arms. Yes, Hong Kong was lost in a fight with drug dealer, effectively. Granted, as you read the annals of the British Empire, it's quite clear that the complexity, heterogeneity, and chaos of ruling the empire made cogent and consistent decision making impossible (cf. The Ghosts of Empire, Kwarteng, PublicAffairs Press). So to blame the British as a whole makes no sense, but certainly the policy of the leadership.

    This perception of victimhood and need for security is important to understand. Is it an overreaction? Possibly. But would such a people believe the soothing words of those that had invaded before?

    The memories of the conquerors is oft short.

    The memories of the oppressed oft far less forgiving, vis a vis the variance of China's perception of policy and history with Vietnam, vs. the perceptions/memories of the Vietnamese [recall the slogan, `1000 years of Chinese Rule', frequently noted in Vietnam, but rarely mentioned in Chinese articulation;http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/vietnam/HISTORY.html]

    These are lessons that relative new-comer, the US, ought to remember, as GDPs are not simply equal to power or stability.