In response to recent news that Lyoto Machida may be fighting Mauricio Shogun Rua in his next match.
Re: Whether Shogun Deserves a Title shot?
I think it's reasonable. Shogun, had he come in and stormed Forrest, would have been eligible. He did not, but he has regained some credibility. Right now, every top fighter in LHW UFC is tarnished in some way. The only reasonable person to give him, other than Shogun would be Rampage, who they've spent on TUF. Lyoto has fought and humiliated many of the rest, and the others have serious spots on their records.
Shogun is charismatic, despite his poor English, and I think thematically, it's a fight one could hype up.
Re: Whether Shogun will destroy Machida.
I seriously doubt the word destroy will describe the fight.
Watching the Shogun of old, to me, he relied on instinct and feel. His fighting flowed from excellent cardio and streams of diverse strikes; some flashy and others very accurate. He was a fighter that maneuvered opponents with streams of attacks, that created openings as his patients defended. After Coleman's elbow destroying slam, and the two ACLs, his body doesn't seem to be able to string those combinations together any more. I haven't seen him display that sort of consistency since the elbow incident.
I think his fight against Overeem really displayed how much cardio he used to have, when he kept going after strenuous defense. Kept going after Overeem gassed.
Shogun, IMO, thought he had his cardio back, trying to out muscle Coleman in the wrestling game... and gassed again.
Machida wrestles like a Karateka ought to; tries to toss you, but if it doesn't go immediately, he doesn't keep trying - he backs off and goes back to neutral. It's like Thai boxers, they toss you, and let the drop sap your energy and do mild damage and humiliation, then let you spend more energy getting up. Then they hit you -- a lot.
Shogun, pre damage, relied on his natural gifting to win. The one improvement I saw in his fight against Liddell was his game plan. He no longer went for strings of crazy attacks, but went for shorter combinations, dancing in and out. In a sense, this masks cardio problems. He could've fought that way for 3 rounds.
My analysis: Shogun's fundamental game plan has changed, no longer leveraging great cardio to output long strings of attacks. Perhaps if his conditioning returns, he can go back to his old style... but that may still be a long while away. Remember the Shogun of old never had any significant injuries, and was basically enjoying a uninterrupted period of being in good cardio shape. Never really in trouble from strikes, his losses had all been from submissions, that don't do much to your brain or "jaw" as it were.
I think Shogun actually has the skill set to push Machida's TMA background. He has the medium - long distance combinations that can force engagement, which none of the boxers can do. The Karate distance allows Machida to disrespect the initial 3-4 punches that most people throw, because he's already backing up when the other person starts to close. Mid 2nd closing step, one would typically parry and counter if the guy is at the right range. (And Machida has done this a lot). Basically, it's really hard to close in on a Karateka with punches.
Starting with a skip step, low sweep, or a mid kick is much safer to close the distance. Most MMA fighters don't do any of these attack-feints to close distance, because it's not necessary, and thus they don't ever integrate such techniques into their practice.
If you think about it, most of the kick punch combos you see from MMA fighting is punch punch (n times) kick, if they combo hands and legs at all. With Machida you get to see kicks setting up punches and vice versa. Heck, kicks setting up kicks.
If you watch old school Shogun, he does all of that. In the old days, he really flowed.
Having said all that, I don't think Shogun will have evolved enough. I would have loved for him to fight a couple more opponents, and continue developing his arsenal, and improving his cardio, getting a feel for what his reconstructed joints can handle. Machida is a high level opponent, where you need everything in working order. Shogun no longer has the recklessness of brash, immortal, youth, but I don't think he's yet developed the necessary craftiness and discipline to fight with the mind as opposed by "feel".
In a couple fights, I think he might have matured enough, but not yet. This would be a match I'd love to see in a year from now. But as it stands, I suspect he will lose.
I wouldn't mind being wrong, as I love both of these guys -- Perhaps Shogun is already ready.
May it be an epic battle if it happens.
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